The architecture profession faces an existential crisis.
Threats and risks are coming at the profession from all directions.
The NSW ARB and ARBV recently conducted a study reviewing these risks, 2024 Deep Dive Report on Systemic Risks. And whilst I contributed to the working groups on disruption, I’ve had time to think more about it and I don’t think it goes far enough.
Here’s my top 10 potential risks, that might disrupt the profession.
1. AI and automation
This is a risk to business feared across many vocations. Architecture is no different. Its impact has the potential to be severe. Perhaps not tomorrow, but it’s not much of a stretch to anticipate the automation of a substantial part of the design process. The risk to architects is their exclusion from the design process altogether. There’ll still be opportunities in design, but diminished in all likelihood.
2. Virtual and augmented reality
Arguably here already, but worth flagging VR and AR as a cost to practice. As technology increasingly inserts itself into practice they’ll be a commensurate increase in the cost of business. Only well-resourced practices will be able to keep up. It’s likely this will increase the pressure on smaller practices with less resource capability.
3. New construction methods
The emerging technologies in construction and manufacturing will inevitably change how buildings are designed and built. Technologies such as 3D printing and mass customisation are already shifting the way buildings are conceived and delivered.
4. Design democracy
You might argue this is already here in the guise of reality TV shows featuring home renovations, rarely including let alone featuring architects. Anecdotally these have already impacted residential design practices. Technology has a role here too. With increasingly sophisticated and accessible software, non-architects may choose to forgo architectural services and take on the work themselves – see 2. AI and automation above.
5. Changing client expectations
Photographers will tell you that with the advent of digital workflows clients expected faster and increased output. With digital advancement in architecture, it’s similarly becoming apparent that both clients and authorities expect more and sooner. All without appreciating the realities and cost. These expectations are placing further pressures on traditional architecture business models, as well as on fees.
6. Globalisation
This isn’t especially new, but the pressures of globalisation will only accelerate. As the power of digital tools grows, so to will will competition between architectural practices worldwide. It has the potential to further impact local markets, work hours, workforce location and access to employees.
7. Evolving role of architects
An architect’s scope of work has been ever diminishing, with specialist consultants competing for the work. Teamed with the role of technology in project delivery, it’s likely architects’ responsibilities will shift. They’ll either continue in the delivery of buildings, acting as data analysts and systems integrators, or reposition themselves to utilise their broad skillset in adjacent fields or in entirely new disciplines.
8. Skills obsolescence
It’s conceivable that technological change will render some architectural skills obsolete. The profession would be well-advised to up skill in anticipation of acquiring a new technological skillset. Equally they might choose to add on skills focussed on adapting their practice, broaden their scope of work, and reposition their practice.
9. Climate crisis
Architects have been complicit in the massive impact on the planet by the construction industry. The profession needs to reconcile it’s role, as well as address how it will assist in leading change. The impact is already being felt as the construction industry reconsiders the conception and delivery of new buildings. Whilst simultaneously adopting new approaches, including adaptive re-use, the assessment of embodied carbon, and the global impact of materials specification.
10. Regulation
Regulation in the construction industry has become increasingly onerous on practice. As we’re currently seeing in NSW, this has the potential to accelerate as new technologies come online and we come to terms with the impact of climate change. We see regulatory change not only affecting the design delivery process, but increasing risk for the profession.
A profession reshaped
Realistically there’s a fundamental change coming to the architectural profession. More so than identified in the Systemic Risks Report. Whilst the more traditional model of practice might remain, it’s likely to be less common beyond of the delivery of bespoke houses, and much diminished. The profession must therefore be prepared to be more agile. Adapting their professional roles, skills and practice model. Including exploring new services, adopting a more radical collaborative and entrepreneurial approach, or rethinking what it means to be an architect and practice architecture in 2024 and onwards.
Opportunity
Architects should see this as an opportunity to take a proactive posture. Focussing on how they might lead change in and of the profession. Establishing new opportunities and leveraging their substantial skills, instead of buttressing the established position. This is the best time to experiment with opportunity and what might be possible, in this era of rapid technological and environmental change.
AI image generated in Canva
